London based online market research agency FlyResearch has been issuing weekly polls to its research panel of over 3000 people throughout the coronavirus lockdown in the UK, in order to project how the outbreak and the implementing of social distancing has been impacting the daily life of UK citizens. This week, managing partner Greg Ward discusses the findings from the 25th wave of the Covid-19 tracker survey with the Leaders Council, published on September 17 and sourced from data collected on September 11, and with increased restrictions beginning to enter force in different areas of the country, the data began to take a more negative turn.
Presenting the results in his weekly analysis, Greg Ward explained: “Since it is now becoming obvious that cases are once more on the rise, we suspected that we could start to see the figures change for the worse.
“Fortunately, the impact has not been too dramatic in the opening couple of questions relating to the wellbeing of our panel members and their friends and family. The number of respondents saying that they had suffered no personal emotional or physical health issues as a result of the pandemic stood at 52 per cent this week. That is marginally lower than the 53 per cent recorded last week, and it is the first time it has dropped to this level since the 22nd wave of the survey. We have only gone below that figure once, hitting 51 per cent in week 14 of the survey at the end of June. Given what is happening in the news, it could be that this is the start of a continual decline, particularly since the percentage of people reporting emotional issues and mild physical symptoms both increased one percentage point to 38 per cent and nine per cent, respectively. But we will have to wait and see what happens.”
The responses from the second question, concerning the health of those associated with respondents, saw similar movement the opposite way. The percentage of people saying they did not know anybody suffering from emotional or physical symptoms remained at 38 per cent compared with the previous poll, while the percentage points for people knowing somebody suffering from mild symptoms or emotional struggles both dropped one per cent to 16 per cent and 30 per cent, respectively. Meanwhile, the rate of panellists saying that they know somebody who has taken a Covid-19 test has gone up from 14 per cent to 15 per cent.
Moving on to address the statistics around the employment status of respondents, Ward highlighted that despite the threat of redundancies on the horizon, there was still no real shift in the numbers.
He said: “The percentage of people who are furloughed remains at nine per cent like last week and is still down from the high of 13 per cent we have previously seen. Likewise, the number of people saying that they are ‘still working’ remains at the recent high of 44 per cent, which is positive news. Two per cent continue to say they are redundant, while the number of those ‘not working’ has also fallen by one per cent to stand at 37 per cent this week.”
The concerning trend lay in the following question, where the specific emotions that panel members showed a significant shift.
Ward elaborated: “The major news is that the proliferation of people feeling ‘concerned’ has shot up from 43 per cent to 55 per cent, the highest it has been since the third week of the poll at the beginning of April. It is, however, the only negative emotion that has increased by such a drastic margin. The emotion ‘scared’ has also gone up from ten per cent last week to 17 per cent now, its highest score since week eight.
“It comes as no surprise that the tightening of restrictions is also making people angrier. The rate of respondents describing themselves as feeling angry rose from 20 per cent to 28 per cent, an all-time high. The previous high was 26 per cent, recorded in week 11.
“The news gets even worse when we look at the proliferation of the ‘hopeful’ emotion. The lowest we had previously seen here was 24 per cent in week 19 at the end of July. We have now hit a new low of 18 per cent, suggesting that people may be starting to lose hope that we will see an end to all of this any time soon.”
The responses to the following questions suggest that the deteriorating emotions and increased sentiment of anger are beginning to take their toll on the panel’s opinions of government and how they are handling the pandemic.
Ward said: “In next week’s poll, we are intending to include a guest question asking who people blame for these changes coming into play. This week though, we have seen signs that much of that is being pinned on the government, after we have hit a new low for views on their performance.”
The question on the government’s performance in handling the pandemic asks respondents to rank its response between one and ten. One suggests that their handling of Covid-19 has been tantamount to a disaster, while ten would indicate that they have handled the crisis very well.
Ward continued: “Previously, the highest weekly percentage of people scoring the government’s performance in the bottom three was 41 per cent. That was the case last week, but we had seen it go higher a couple of times previously. This week, it has risen to 45 per cent, and on the flipside, the percentage of people scoring the government a top three score between eight and ten is at an all-time low: just 14 per cent of the panel feel they are handling all of this well.”
While there was obvious disapproval in those responses, Ward pointed out that there was an interesting change in the speed survey question, which gave the panel’s overall consensus on whether the government was moving too slowly or too quickly in lifting lockdown restrictions.
The question tallies up each response and converts it into an average score on a scale from -100 [suggesting that restrictions are being lifted too slowly] to +100 [indicating that restrictions are being lifted too quickly].
Ward said: “The overall speed calculation this week is +10, which is the closest to a perfect score of zero we have ever seen and a major improvement on last week’s +18. If we dive below that figure into the specifics, however, it is because there has been a major increase in the amount of people who think the government is moving far too slowly in lifting lockdown, since restrictions are being tightened in places. This figure stood as seven per cent last week and has now gone up to 12 per cent. Meanwhile, the number of people that thing the government is moving ‘a bit too slowly’ has gone up by three per cent to sit at 16 per cent now.
“On the other hand, more of the panel still feel the opposite way. The number of people saying that restrictions are continuing to be lifted much too quickly has slightly gone up from 16 per cent to 17 per cent, while 25 per cent think the government is moving a little too quickly, which is a drop on the 31 per cent who felt this way last week.
“The balance on average is moving toward the speed being about right, but with the extra lockdowns just announced, we will keep a close eye on this to gauge whether there are any significant shifts to come.”
The latest guest questions to feature in the weekly survey focused on two distinct topics. The first looked at the perceived clarity of new restrictions coming into force, while the other explored the issue of Brexit, which returned to the headlines recently amid the row over the Internal Market Bill.
Summarising the numbers, Ward said: “We decided to ask our panel about the various changes to restrictions announced at the point we launched the survey, mainly concerning the new rule of six. Almost half of the panel thought that the new requirements were quite clear, with 12 per cent saying that they were ‘crystal clear’ and 36 per cent ‘mostly’ so.
“Less than one fifth of the panel were confused by the new rules, with six per cent saying they were left feeling ‘very confused’ while 12 per cent thought they weren’t clear at all.”
In the Brexit question, the results yielded almost an exact split of individuals who were for and against leaving the European Union.
Presenting the figures, Ward explained: “39 per cent of the panel informed us here that they wanted to leave in 2016 and still do so no, either with or without a trade deal in place. 38 per cent reported that they wished to remain part of the bloc in 2016 and still wish to do so.
“In the middle ground, nine per cent were originally against leaving but are now of the opinion that Brexit must be fully enacted with or without a deal, meaning that there are a combined 48 per cent of overall ‘Leavers’. The remaining 14 per cent would like to leave with a deal, and in the absence of a trade deal would prefer to rejoin the EU.
“It would appear, therefore, that the government does not have a mandate for a no-deal Brexit, according to the panel, but with such close percentages, basically opinions since 2016 have changed very little.”
