The latest monthly NHS performance statistics have indicated that the waiting lists for hospital treatment stand at a record number of over seven million, and with nurses set to walk out before the end of the year, the situation is likely to intensify.
With the government’s fiscal statement set to be made on November 17, health and social care sector analysts are calling on prime minister Rishi Sunak and chancellor Jeremy Hunt to bear in mind the impact that any further budgetary squeeze could have on an ailing health service.
Chief analyst at The King’s Fund, Siva Anandaciva, said: “Just days before the autumn statement, today’s figures present government with an uncomfortable truth; many NHS services are already in crisis and the situation is likely to worsen as winter bites and demoralised staff show their discontent through industrial action.
“The government’s upcoming fiscal statement will have a profound impact on the quality and accessibility of health and care services for patients in the coming years. If NHS budgets keep being eroded by inflation, it is hard to see how ambitious government targets to reduce hospital waiting lists – which currently stands at 7.1 million for routine care – can possibly be achieved.”
The latest NHS figures show that there are almost 44,000 emergency patients that are having to wait in excess of 12 hours in A&E to be admitted to hospital.
13,600 people being unable to leave hospital despite being medically fit to do so is creating a knock-on effect that is keeping patients in A&E waiting for admittance longer, which in turn creates delays in moving patients from ambulances into A&E departments and contributes to longer ambulance response times.
As NHS services struggle with rising demand, services are faced with 132,000 staff shortages and added pressures still lingering from Covid-19.
Anandaciva added: “History has shown us that attempts to protect core NHS budgets at the expense of wider spending on social care, illness prevention and capital investment are short-sighted and can lead to greater pressure on services further down the line, and leave NHS patients and staff with failing equipment, dilapidated buildings and poorer health.
“Now is the moment for the government to show stewardship of health and care services as well as the economy. If, instead, ministers choose to squeeze health and care budgets, they must be prepared to explain to patients and the public why services are going to deteriorate, with poorer care and longer waits as a result.”
The Nuffield Trust’s deputy director of research, Sarah Scobie, explained that as bad as the latest NHS figures were now, they were also indicative of a looming winter crisis for the health service.
“Today’s figures show no let up for NHS staff as they brace themselves for a very difficult winter ahead,” Scobie explained.
“The number of patients waiting for planned care is now firmly past the once unthinkable seven million mark. Meeting the next stage of the elective recovery plan will be extremely difficult given progress to clear 78-week waits has stalled, and that is without the additional risks of a spike in flu cases and further Covid cases, on top of confirmed strike action.”
Scobie also raised the issue that frontline services were still waiting for the mobilisation of additional winter funding which would be vital to alleviating pressure. resources were to be reduced further
“This (additional) funding is critical to reducing delayed discharges which continue to drive up dangerous waiting times in A&E departments, with over 30 per cent of people spending more than four hours in A&E, and for ambulance services – the average response time to emergency calls was at a record high and over an hour.”
She added that if the Autumn Statement was to bring any further cutting of the NHS cloth, the chancellor needed to be forthright about the impact this would have on NHS staff and patient outcomes.
“He (chancellor, Jeremy Hunt) should be very clear about the pain that patients and staff will feel from squeezing the NHS budget any further,” Scobie said.
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