The UN Environment Programme’s 2021 production gap report has warned that government plans to extract fossil fuels up to 2030 could jeopardise the Paris Agreement’s target of keeping global temperature rises below 1.5 Celsius.
The report says that current plans will see more than double the safe threshold of fossil fuel emissions produced to maintain progress toward under 1.5C.
Oil and gas production is in line to rise the most, with coal production set to decrease slightly.
Although many of the largest emitting countries have promised to slash emissions in the run-up to COP26, real policy to bring down fossil fuel usage that is necessary to keep global temperatures down has not been forthcoming.
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [IPCC] has previously said that carbon emissions will need to be cut by 45 per cent compared to 2010 levels by the year 2030 if the 1.5 Celsius threshold is to remain within reach.
Should 1.5C be exceeded, the IPCC has said that the effects will pose danger to life.
Despite this, the UN report uncovered that fossil fuel production will stand at around 110 per cent over what would be needed to remain below 1.5C. Planned production was also deemed to be around 45 per cent over what would be required to keep global temperature increases at no higher than 2 Celsius.
The UN identified the US, UK, Australia, Russia and Saudi Arabia as being among the biggest offenders for increased fossil fuel production in its report; a revelation which undermines the UK government’s recent climate pledges.
Costa Rica’s environment and energy minister, Andrea Meza, has called upon world leaders to bring about an end to fossil fuel extraction and production.
Meza said: “This report shows, once again, a simple but powerful truth: we need to stop pumping oil and gas from the ground if we are to meet the goals of the Paris Agreement.
“We must cut with both hands of the scissors, addressing demand and supply of fossil fuels simultaneously. That is why, together with Denmark, we are leading the creation of the Beyond Oil and Gas Alliance to put an end to the expansion of fossil fuel extraction, plan a just transition for workers and start winding down existing production in a managed way.”
While fossil fuel production is set to rise, funding for such activities has been significantly reduced in recent years, with banks and larger economies slashing funding for extraction projects.
Photo by Chris LeBoutillier on Unsplash
