Writing for The Leaders Council of Great Britain & Northern Ireland, Christina Thakor-Rankin, principal consultant at 1710 Gaming, discusses the temporary and permanent changes that industry can expect as a result of the Covid-19 pandemic and ensuing lockdown, and why some of these changes may render life as we know it entirely different to before within certain sectors.
Human beings, generally speaking, are creatures of habit. We find comfort and security in structure, rules and routines. Any departure from this causes uncertainty and anxiety. This helps explain why major changes in the way that we think, behave and act have usually been as a result of external influences such as war, economic necessity [be that crisis or boom], and natural disasters [including pandemics], which force us to change in order to survive.
In more modern times, this list has extended to include technology and people. Having once been the preserve of professionals or the wealthy, the internet and its influence on traditional telecommunications has now revolutionised our relationship with technology as a whole, and transformed us as a race from technophobes to technophiles, forcing humans and organisations to change with the times. Before the current pandemic, the focus of the world was on a different crisis: the environment, an issue brought to the fore by people, particularly the younger generation [for instance millennials and so-called Generation Z], who now form the largest generational group in the history of the planet and have the volume of numbers to make themselves heard.
Some of these changes may be temporary, with things going back to how they were in time; some may be permanent resulting in a ‘new normal’ or things ‘never being the same again’; and some are a catalyst or lay down the seeds for longer term change over time.
For example, historically, war and economic crisis have seen women entering the workplace out of necessity. Where women took over traditional male roles, the change was usually temporary, with women taking a step back once the men returned to work. The lack of men - especially husbands - after the war resulted in single women having to work to survive, coupled with a breakdown of traditional social structures as those at the bottom realised that ‘service’ was no longer the only employment option, leading to a more permanent change for those in some parts of society. Here, we saw the first seeds of change for the longer-term being planted, and women beginning to play a more active role in the workplace.
Human beings are also surprisingly resistant to change unless that change is personally beneficial to them or the people and principles that they hold dear. At times of crisis they will accept or endure change but take comfort in the knowledge that it is only for the short term and that at some point things will go back to normal. It therefore comes as no surprise that - with the exception of those changes that absolutely cannot be reversed, those that have been set down in regulation, or generally accepted as more beneficial – in cases where the crisis has been going on for so long, the new way is no longer new.
Of course, it begs the question as to how all of this can help predict what the post-lockdown landscape may look like. The current crisis has been ongoing for a few months [maternity leave, sabbaticals and career breaks all last longer] as opposed to years, so not really long enough then for any new habits to start forming, and there is already talk of ‘easing’ and getting things moving again.
If we set this against a background of the need to get the economy moving again, alongside fears of job losses, the discovery that for many the grass of working from home isn’t quite as green as it looks, and the challenges of juggling work and home-schooling, it suggests that with the exception of some minor shifts, there is every chance that the ‘new normal’ is likely to look remarkably like the old normal.
This means that for many industries, life will over time get back to normal. But there will be a few exceptions to the rule. For those in travel, hospitality, sport, and leisure, including the betting and gambling sector, life after lockdown may never be the same again.
Firstly, any business sector or industry unable to trade during the pandemic, particularly those that do not have emergency reserves or government bailouts to fall back on, is at risk. Those who will continue to be subject to social distancing or similar measures after lockdown such as travel, hospitality, sport, and leisure, will be at greater risk. This is challenging enough, but if one were to throw in a couple more curve balls, then life on the other side for the betting and gambling industry for example, starts to look even trickier.
Firstly, betting and gambling is a leisure activity linked to disposable income. It is something that people chose to do for different reasons, but mainly for entertainment and with money that they can afford to spare. Uncertainty over jobs and job security has reduced the amount of money flowing into non-essential expenditure and this also includes betting and gambling.
Secondly, the lockdown has meant that many people have had to find new ways of filling their leisure time. Some may find that they prefer these new activities to the old. People also get into the ‘habit’ of doing things - going to the casino, the bookies, the bingo. Those who previously placed bets or gambled out of habit – perhaps gambling every weekend watching football in the pub or bar with friends, or going to play bingo with the gang on a Wednesday, or embarking on a trip to the casino on a Friday evening, have been forced to break that habit. Some will pick up where they left off, but a significant number will not.
Thirdly, out of those who do go back - the experience is likely to be very different to how they remember it. How will social distancing affect the entertainment of watching football with your friends when you cannot go to the pub or bar, or have to sit two metres apart? How will it feel to sit at a half-empty roulette or blackjack table, or not being able to sit in a huddle over a game of bingo? And how will social distancing impact e-sports if teams cannot sit together, or organisers are simply unable to pack out a stadium?
Fourthly, regulation must also be considered. Most regulators have already cautioned operators to enhance existing social responsibility and player protection measures during lockdown. In the case of Belgium and Sweden, this has taken the form of regulatory restrictions on deposit limits. While not a bad thing, it will mean all customers are getting into the habit of depositing and spending less, or in a few cases, pushing them towards illegal or unregulated sites. Furthermore, temporary changes made during times of crisis for beneficial reasons and proven to have no negative impact, usually end up staying in place for the long-term.
Finally, most customer facing businesses after the crisis will kick-off the recovery process with marketing spend and a raft of customer incentives, bonuses, and promotions. For betting and gambling, this traditional route to acquisition and retention is becoming increasingly narrow, with more and more regulators and authorities working together to introduce rules around advertising, marketing, and customer incentives.
A mere one of these aforementioned factors by itself would be enough to cause a ripple within the sector. A combination of one or more would raise a few shockwaves. All of them together would cause a tsunami big enough to change the industry forever, which is likely to be the outcome.
